Horn of Africa Rainfall Shock and Food Crisis

The Horn of Africa is facing a renewed food-security shock, but the latest evidence points to a mix of extreme dryness and localized flood impacts rather than a single El Niño-driven event. FEWS NET reported in December 2025 that the eastern Horn was experiencing one of the driest October-December rainy seasons on record, with widespread moisture deficits, failed or near-failed seasons, and crop losses severe enough that some areas saw non-irrigated harvests projected at less than 10% of average in Somalia’s Bay and Bakool regions. The report said Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia were all seeing widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, while parts of Somalia were in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Country-level impacts remain severe. Concern Worldwide reported that the 2021-23 drought was the worst in the Horn since 1981 and left over 31.9 million people in need of humanitarian aid, including more than 23.5 million facing acute food insecurity; it also said at least 6.5 million people were facing high levels of hunger across Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, including about 2.1 million in Kenya and 3.4 million in Somalia, with Somalia projected to rise to 4.4 million by the end of 2025. The same source noted almost 742,000 children under five and more than 109,000 pregnant and breastfeeding women were acutely malnourished and in urgent need of treatment. CARE’s reporting on the 2023 floods also shows how quickly climate shocks compound risk in the region: floods linked to intense rainfall killed more than 230 people and displaced hundreds of thousands across Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya, with Somalia alone reporting 99 deaths and more than 695,000 displaced and Ethiopia over 760,000 displaced.