Accelerating Arctic Permafrost Thaw
Recent Developments
012025: A Nature Communications Earth & Environment study estimated Alaska’s permafrost-related infrastructure damages at about $37 billion to $51 billion across modeled periods, with road damage alone estimated at about $35 billion and the highest costs concentrated in Fairbanks North Star Borough, Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area, and North Slope Borough.
022025: A new economic analysis found that permafrost thaw could impose very large global climate damages, with NOAA summarizing research showing trillions of dollars in additional losses from thaw-related emissions.
032022-2025 research: Circumpolar estimates continue to show large exposure of Arctic infrastructure, including roughly 29% of roads, 23% of railroads, and 11% of buildings affected under a moderate-warming scenario, with higher exposure under stronger warming.
Interventions
- Permafrost monitoring and modeling programs led by NOAA and other research institutions to track ground temperature, thaw depth, and infrastructure risk.
- Infrastructure adaptation efforts in Arctic regions, including redesigning roads, runways, and foundations to reduce heat transfer into the ground and account for thaw-related instability.
What Works
- Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions lowers long-term thaw and substantially reduces projected damages; the circumpolar infrastructure study found lower costs under the lower-warming scenario than under the high-emissions scenario.
- Engineering measures that limit heat flow into the ground, combined with relocation or reinforcement of the most vulnerable assets, can reduce failure risk for roads, buildings, and runways in thaw-prone areas.
How to Help
- Support Arctic science and climate-risk organizations working on permafrost monitoring, adaptation, and community resilience.
- Advocate for emissions reductions and Arctic infrastructure adaptation funding through elected representatives and regional governments.
- Support Indigenous and northern community-led adaptation efforts focused on housing, roads, water systems, and airstrips.
Make an Impact
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Verified Organizations
Organizations Helping(19)
Arctic PASSION tackles permafrost thaw by integrating on-the-ground observations, remote sensing, and data systems to improve Arctic monitoring and to support policy and community responses. Its method is to create a pan-Arctic observing system that can better document thaw, contaminants, and related hazards and make those data usable for decision-making.
Nunataryuk studies the impacts of thawing permafrost on coastal zones, infrastructure, and carbon release through multi-country research collaborations. Its approach combines field observations, modeling, and synthesis of permafrost-related risks to improve understanding of how thaw affects communities and the climate system.
ACAT works on permafrost thaw because thawing ground can mobilize industrial contaminants and heavy metals into waterways. The organization supports community-based contamination studies, environmental advocacy, and policy engagement, including work with Indigenous communities to document exposures and push for state, national, and international chemical controls.
The Arctic Council addresses thawing permafrost through regional coordination, knowledge sharing, and Indigenous participation in Arctic policy. Its permafrost-related work includes information resources and initiatives that connect scientific monitoring, community observations, and governance responses to changing Arctic ground conditions.
